OP/ED - The Accuracy of Storm Prediction?

MONTGOMERY COUNTY, TX -- I was making a late lunch when Beryl’s first rain bands arrived on Sunday at 1:28 pm. Since I subscribe to the mid-county overpriced-paper that I solely use as a placemat on my counter for the purpose of a faster cleanup after preparing and eating food. I chopped my veggies and season my proteins, and toss the mid-pages in the trash. And since I eat at the same counter, with my iPad hanging from under the cabinets, I watch videos from my YouTube influencers that I find informative. Anyway, since I was busy Saturday in Montgomery with their Freedom Fest Parade and their booths and activities associated with the First Saturday Homemade Goods Market, I got behind my checking emails.

I looked at an email with the base story written by Houston Chronicle Deputy Managing Editor Dan Carson, on July 5th. The storm was still coming off the Yucatan Peninsula, and the track was predicted to come ashore just north of Brownsville. The ‘Chron | First Draft’ email titled ‘Texas under hurricane watch,’ was received in my email box at 6:30 am on July 6th. Up until that time, the hurricane, or spaghetti models, didn’t have to deal with the High Pressure System over the eastern Gulf. Well, it was obvious the Caribbean trajectory of Beryl was influenced by the HPS, as it continued slightly northwest throughout its trek through the sea. The forecast track of tropical storms and hurricanes is much appreciated, and all the models are great and all. But if I were in some far off land with sporadic internet, and just got that July 6th email, I’d be saying, “Oh good, finally some rain for the water starved yards.”

I wouldn’t be thinking that just a day and a half later on July 7th, 2:00 pm, that the Houston-Galveston area would be looking down the barrel of Beryl, with a direct hit for Montgomery County? We can only Thank God that the storm was not a category 4 or 5 hurricane. And as we all know, a forecast track is as good as the next forecast; some four hours later. So here I’m thinking about that Chron email, and my mind sparks an idea. And I don’t know if it's been thought of before, but can we think ‘out of the box’ on this?

Can hurricane forecast model makers bring in people outside of the discipline of meteorology into the game? How can a rocket scientist help in the arena of forecast prediction? What does a quantitative analyst think? What would Issac Newton and Nicky Copernicus have thought about it? Or just any run of the mill person with an IQ over 200? How about AI? I heard he's a pretty smart guy.

We are essentially talking about numbers here? I don’t know what the formula for predicting a thunderstorm out of a dry desert sky would be, but a Nobel Prize would surely be hanging at the end of it. And more than likely it may require more paper than the 262,000 densely printed pages of the mapped human genome.

But I think it would be nice to know that if a butterfly flaps its wings in Indonesia, and if a guy walks out of a bar in Vietnam and farts, what part of that wing flap and fart played a factor to create Beryl? I may kid just a tad, but are the forecast models too inward thinking? Are the scientists not including enough factors? And of course, there may never be an answer to that question. But for the most part, the four or three hour alerts were OK. But for the travelers away from Texas who only have sporadic internet in their travels. It would be nice if they could have accurate predictions on landfall a day or two out, rather than just four hours.

I’m looking at the potential for greater prediction. Has anyone thought of drones loitering over tropical storms dropping probes off to give the guys in the hurricane hunters a break? Is it possible? I’m just asking questions here, I’m not trying to stir up anything more than just a witty OP/ED that might provoke some thought to make people safer. Even with a small storm like Beryl, our area did suffer. And if a few words on a page might help the science of storm prediction, then so be it. It’d definitely provide some peace of mind to that far off traveler wondering what is going on in Montgomery County.

Ruben can be reached at: ruben@montgomerycountynews.net